It’s almost 2019. For some of you that’ll hit today, for the rest of us that’ll hit tomorrow. And the “what do you foresee for 2019?” posts are popping up here or there on forums so I thought I’d see if I could weigh in here with some thoughts.
First, I think the market for self-publishing/indie publishing has substantially matured over the last year. So where someone might have been able to just throw a book up there, have it take off, make a fortune, and continue to do so consistently without advertising or some effort to capture those readers like a mailing list a year or two ago, I don’t think that’s realistically possible anymore.
Could it happen? Sure. Anything can happen. But it’s certainly not something I would bet a career on.
Which probably means a mind shift for a lot of the indies/self-publishers who came up pre-2015 or so and don’t have a strong audience. It also means some bad advice will continue to float around for newbies who listen to those who did come up in that period and established a strong audience, because they are going to probably, maybe, continue to do just fine without much advertising as long as they release often enough to keep their readers’ attention and continue to put out a product that meets their audience’s need.
If you want advice on establishing yourself now, you need to look to those who have done so recently. And in your genre.
I still think there are two possible paths to take to make money at this. One is what I call the wave approach, which is figuring out what’s hot right now and writing it as much and as fast as you can until it dies. And then moving on to the next trend and doing it all again. (Some folks do well hitting a trend but fail to move on when the readers do and then they crash and burn.)
The other is what I call the brick-by-brick approach, which requires steadily releasing books and building your readership with each new release.
The wave approach is fast and quick but it’s like riding a rollercoaster and there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to keep up with it long-term. But it can be some incredible money short-term.
The brick-by-brick approach is slow and steady, but it’s not guaranteed either. If the overall audience for what you’re writing isn’t big enough to sustain you, you won’t ever hit a good level of income. And it also requires a quality product that keeps readers coming back for more. If you can do that, four or five years of steady new releases may get you there and keep you there.
But note the words steady and new in that last paragraph.
I discussed this in Achieve Writing Success. It’s something more indies/self-publishers need to embrace: If you want a career out of this it will not be made on one book. Probably not even on one series. You need to steadily produce more material to feed your existing audience and to give you more flexibility when it comes to things like promotion and visibility.
(Yes, there are exceptions, but never plan on being the exception. I am also admittedly bad at this on the fiction side of things but I will say that each new fiction release I’ve done has moved the base-level for that pen name upward.)
What else?
I think the recent changes in audio have been interesting, but that because so many people are locked in with ACX either because of royalty share agreements or that seven-year distribution term they throw in all their contracts that it’s not going to have a significant impact for now. I just hope those new players hold out long enough for people to be able to shift to them.
For me KU is useful when it’s useful and a market I don’t use when it’s not. I will say that I make a steady income on my romance novels in KU even though they are not written to a trend and the last one was published a year and a half ago, so maybe try things for yourself instead of letting the loudest voices decide for you.
I suspect we’ll have a pretty large shakeout next year and lose a lot of authors who just can’t keep up or adjust to the continuing changes, because even though we’re maturing as an industry there is a lot of change that happens all the time and most people aren’t good at handling that long-term. The key when you miss a shift is to not panic and waste time screaming about how the world has changed, but to adjust and find a new normal instead.
For me personally? 2018 was my best year by far and 2019 is looking like it’ll top that. But I did the “let me jump off a cliff and see if I can figure out how to fly before I hit bottom” approach that everyone warns against. (Being high Responsibility it was the only way I would put writing ahead of day-job to give it a fair shot.)
So I’m awful close to being able to fly, but I’m also awful close to hitting the bottom, too.
Which will happen first? That’s the question. I see enough promise right now to continue at least until my birthday in June and then I’ll reassess again. (I really want to have at least made six-figures gross from my writing before I leave, if I leave, and if things continue as they are I’ll have made that mark by then.)
Of course, if an interesting enough opportunity presents itself in the interim, I might take it. (Unfortunately for me all the interesting opportunities that have come my way in the last few years have involved being on-site in Europe or the UK and I won’t take those because of the pup. She’s priority one for me.)
Right now my book income could probably stay steady with just half an hour a day to tend my ads because most of my top-sellers are long-term sellers that have hit steady levels. But I suspect that would fade if I stopped paying attention to shifts on the business side of things. And competition being what it is, that could change at any moment.
Overall I like my life right now and I’m not eager to give it up. So, onward. I have an Excel book to finalize and publish, a good friend to visit next month, and then a cozy or two to write.
And a lot of outside voices to ignore…
M.L. Humphrey 